Proposition bets, commonly called "props," are wagers on specific events or outcomes within a game that don't necessarily relate to the final score or winner. Think of them as side bets on everything from individual player statistics to quirky game occurrences.
While traditional bets focus on who wins or by how much, props let you bet on the granular details. Will Patrick Mahomes throw for over 275.5 yards? Will the coin toss be heads? How many times will the broadcast mention Taylor Swift during a Chiefs game? These are all prop bets.
The prop betting market has exploded in recent years. What once was limited to Super Bowl novelty bets is now a massive market covering every major sport, with some sportsbooks offering hundreds of props for a single NFL game.
Props fall into three main categories, each with distinct characteristics and betting strategies:
Bets on individual player performance statistics. These are the bread and butter of prop betting, covering everything from scoring to defensive stats.
Bets on team or game-related events that aren't the final outcome. Think first touchdown scorer, longest field goal, or total turnovers.
Creative, often entertainment-focused bets. These range from halftime show elements to broadcast mentions of specific topics.
| Prop Type | Example | Typical Odds | Best Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Player Props | Josh Allen O/U 1.5 TD passes | -110/-110 | Research matchups, weather, game script |
| Game Props | First scoring play: TD or FG | +180/+120 | Study team tendencies in red zone |
| Exotic Props | Gatorade color on winning coach | +300/+400/+500 | Historical patterns, team traditions |
Player props are where smart money goes to work. Unlike game totals that involve 22 players, props let you focus on one athlete's performance, making research more manageable and profitable.
Passing Props (Football):
Rushing Props:
Receiving Props:
1. Matchup Analysis
How does the opposing defense rank against this player's position? If you're betting Davante Adams receiving yards, check how many yards the opposing team allows to wide receivers, particularly slot receivers if that's Adams' primary role.
2. Game Script Prediction
Will the game be a blowout? Close? High-scoring? A trailing team throws more, boosting passing props but hurting rushing props. A team with a big lead runs more in the fourth quarter.
3. Weather and Conditions
Wind affects passing games more than rushing. Cold weather can impact ball security and kicking accuracy. Dome games tend to be higher-scoring than outdoor games in December.
4. Recent Usage and Health
Has the player been getting more or fewer touches recently? Any injury concerns? Sometimes a player is listed as "probable" but clearly isn't 100%.
Scenario: DraftKings has Alvin Kamara rushing yards at O/U 67.5 yards (-110/-110) for a Saints vs. Falcons game.
Research Process:
Conclusion: The over looks strong. Kamara has a favorable matchup, good usage trends, and historically performs well against Atlanta. The minor injury concern is offset by his return to practice.
Game props focus on team or game-wide events rather than individual performances. These bets require understanding team tendencies, coaching philosophies, and situational factors.
Scoring Props:
Statistical Props:
Situational Props:
| Game Prop | Typical Odds | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| First team to score | -105/-105 | Opening drive efficiency, home field advantage |
| Total turnovers O/U 2.5 | -110/-110 | QB accuracy, weather, pass rush quality |
| Game goes to overtime | +800 | Historically occurs in ~5% of NFL games |
| Safety scored | +1200 | Very rare, look for bad offensive lines vs. good pass rushes |
Correlation is Key: Game props often correlate with the main betting lines. If you think a game will be high-scoring, consider betting the over on total touchdowns. If you expect a defensive slugfest, look at under total first downs.
Coach and Team Tendencies: Some coaches are more aggressive on fourth down, affecting touchdown vs. field goal props. Certain teams historically commit more penalties or turn the ball over frequently.
Situational Awareness: Division games tend to be closer and more physical, potentially increasing turnover and penalty props. Monday Night Football games historically go under the total more often due to short weeks and travel.
Exotic props are where sportsbooks get creative, especially during major events like the Super Bowl, March Madness, or the Olympics. While these might seem like pure entertainment, sharp analysis can still find value.
Historical Data Still Matters: The national anthem length bet has extensive historical data. Analyze past performances by the same artist or similar artists to find patterns.
Inside Information (Legally): Sometimes public information gives you an edge. If you know a celebrity will be at the game for a commercial shoot, their mention becomes more likely.
Market Inefficiencies: Sportsbooks often set these lines quickly without deep analysis, creating opportunities for those who do the research.
Value in prop betting comes from information asymmetry—you know something the sportsbook doesn't, or you've done better analysis than their oddsmakers.
Beat Reporter Intel: Local beat reporters often have the best information about player health, role changes, or coach tendencies. Following the right Twitter accounts can give you edges.
Advanced Metrics: Sites like Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, or Basketball Reference provide deeper statistics than what sportsbooks might consider when setting lines.
Situational Analysis: Understanding game theory helps predict how coaches will behave in specific situations. Will a team with a big lead keep throwing in garbage time, or will they run clock?
Props can have significant line differences between sportsbooks. DraftKings might have Lamar Jackson rushing yards at O/U 65.5, while FanDuel has it at O/U 62.5. Always shop around.
Where to Shop:
Early in the Week: Lines often have more mistakes when first posted. Sportsbooks refine them as the week progresses and more information becomes available.
Right Before Game Time: Late-breaking injury news can create opportunities. If a wide receiver is suddenly ruled out, the remaining receivers' props might not adjust quickly enough.
In-Game Props: Live prop betting during games can offer value as situations develop that weren't anticipated pre-game.
Understanding how props correlate within the same game can create profitable same-game parlay opportunities.
Positive Correlations:
Negative Correlations:
Occasionally, you can find arbitrage opportunities in props across different sportsbooks. This is rare but worth watching for during busy betting periods.
Example:
Similar to middling point spreads, you can sometimes middle prop bets when lines move significantly.
Example Process:
Just because a player had a huge game last week doesn't mean they'll repeat it. Regression to the mean is real in sports. Don't chase last week's numbers.
A running back's yards prop might look good based on season averages, but if his team is expected to trail by 14+ points, they probably won't be running much in the second half.
Betting multiple props from the same game without understanding how they relate to each other. If you think the game will be low-scoring, don't also bet the over on multiple player scoring props.
The more props you bet, the harder it becomes to maintain your edge. Focus on props where you have the strongest informational advantage.
Props should typically be a smaller percentage of your total betting bankroll than traditional spreads and totals. The higher variance and research requirements mean most bettors should limit prop betting to 20-30% of their overall action.
Recommended Unit Sizes:
Props are just one piece of the puzzle. From futures betting to line movement analysis, there's always more to learn.
Explore all IYROT guidesProp betting offers some of the best opportunities in sports betting for those willing to do the work. The key is treating props like individual puzzles to solve rather than random gambles. Focus on sports and players you know well, always shop for the best lines, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Remember: sportsbooks offer hundreds of props because they're profitable for the house. Your job is to find the small percentage where you have an edge and attack them systematically. The casual bettor who sprinkles money on dozens of random props will lose in the long run, but the disciplined researcher who picks their spots can find consistent value.
Start small, track your results, and continuously refine your process. The prop betting market is only getting bigger, creating more opportunities for those who approach it with the right strategy and discipline.