The NFL is America's betting darling, and for good reason. With just 17 regular season games per team and playoff drama that captures the nation, every game matters. Whether you're new to football betting or looking to sharpen your strategy, this guide will walk you through everything you need to know to bet NFL games intelligently.
NFL betting revolves around predicting outcomes of games between 32 teams over an 18-week regular season, followed by playoffs. The league's parity means upsets happen regularly — that's what makes it exciting and profitable for sharp bettors.
Unlike college football with its 130+ teams, the NFL's smaller roster means sportsbooks set tighter, more accurate lines. This creates a more challenging but rewarding betting environment where information and timing matter more than ever.
The bread and butter of NFL betting. The spread levels the playing field by giving the underdog points and taking points from the favorite.
Example: Chiefs -7.5 vs Bengals +7.5
Simply pick the winner, no points involved. Favorites have negative odds (risk more to win less), underdogs have positive odds (risk less to win more).
Example: Chiefs -320, Bengals +260
Bet on the combined score of both teams. NFL totals typically range from 35-55 points.
Example: Chiefs vs Bengals Total 47.5
Bet on individual player performance. Popular NFL props include:
Team and game-specific bets:
Odds update in real-time during games. Great for reacting to injuries, weather changes, or game flow shifts.
| Stat Category | Why It Matters | Where to Find |
|---|---|---|
| Red Zone Efficiency | Predicts touchdown vs field goal scoring | NFL.com, ESPN |
| Turnover Differential | Strong predictor of game outcomes | Team stats pages |
| Third Down Conversion | Indicates offensive consistency | NFL advanced stats |
| Time of Possession | Affects game total and flow | Game recaps |
| Yards Per Play | Efficiency metric, better than total yards | Football analytics sites |
NFL betting isn't just about team strength — context matters:
Different sportsbooks offer different odds. Getting Chiefs -6.5 instead of -7 could be the difference between winning and losing.
Two main timing strategies work:
In the NFL, games commonly end with these margins:
Getting +3.5 instead of +2.5, or -6.5 instead of -7.5, provides significant value.
Many bettors focus on picking winners, but NFL totals can be easier to predict by analyzing:
The "What Have You Done For Me Lately?" trap. A team's great performance last week doesn't guarantee they'll repeat it.
NFL injury reports come out Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and 90 minutes before kickoff. A questionable quarterback can dramatically shift odds.
With 16-17 games per week, it's tempting to bet them all. Focus on games where you have a strong opinion and clear edge.
Popular teams like the Cowboys, Packers, and Chiefs often have inflated lines due to public betting. Look for value on the other side.
| Period | Weeks | Betting Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Early Season | 1-4 | High variance, limited data, public overreactions |
| Mid Season | 5-12 | Most predictable period, clear team identities |
| Late Season | 13-18 | Playoff positioning affects motivation |
| Wild Card | 19 | Home field advantage crucial |
| Divisional | 20 | Elite teams, tighter lines |
| Championship | 21 | Weather factors for outdoor games |
| Super Bowl | 22 | Massive prop market, public square betting |
Popular legal sportsbooks for NFL betting include DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and ESPN BET. Each offers competitive odds and extensive prop markets. Always compare lines across multiple books for the best value.
NFL betting rewards preparation, discipline, and patience. The league's parity means any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday — that's what makes it America's most popular betting sport. Focus on finding value, not just picking winners, and always remember that variance is part of the game.
Start with the basics, track your results, and gradually incorporate more advanced concepts as you gain experience. The NFL provides 22 weeks of betting opportunities each season — there's no rush to bet everything at once.
Explore all IYROT guides covering NBA, MLB, NHL, UFC, and college sports betting strategies.